Blake Swihart was supposed to be developing in Triple-A last year, but injuries prompted his promotion to Boston. Likewise, Eduardo Rodriguez and Jackie Bradley Jr. were summoned to Fenway Park. Their prospect days are over.
The Red Sox farm system may have thinned, but it is still producing, despite those promotions and a slew of trades over the past year.
Some of the players listed below – in our annual top-30 prospect ranking – definitely will play for Boston sometime next season. Some have hopes of reaching Double-A to play in Portland.
And with the season still months away, who knows who else might be traded by the new team president, Dave Dombrowski?
Our list gives greater weight to those closer to the majors. Thus, while third baseman Rafael Devers and pitcher Anderson Espinoza are top talents, they are only teenagers and ranked Nos. 9 and 10.
Also, we have included players with a good amount of major league time, like pitcher Henry Owens (11 starts last year) and first baseman Travis Shaw (65 games). Both have minor league options and are likely to spend time in Pawtucket in 2016.
So here are our rankings in order, with last year’s ranking in parentheses, and age on opening day of 2016:
1. Henry Owens (1), age 23, pitcher. We may have overrated Owens last year at No. 1, but the promise he demonstrated in 11 major league starts has him atop the chart again. While Owens was only 4-4 with a 4.57 ERA, he appeared dominant at times, giving hope that more experience will mean more consistency. A developing slider has helped compliment his killer change-up.
2. Yoan Moncada (NR), 20, second base. Speculation last year had Moncada reaching Double-A, but the Red Sox opted to keep Moncada in one place (Class A Greenville), where he eventually turned on his talent – .310 batting average, .915 OPS with seven home runs after the All-Star break. He should start 2016 in advanced Class A Salem, but Portland won’t be too far away. He could go far next season.
3. Travis Shaw (19), 25, first base. Shaw put up so-so numbers in Pawtucket (.249/.674, five home runs in 77 games) before breaking out in the majors (.270/.813, 13 home runs in 65 games). So the natural question is: Can Shaw keep it up? He likely goes back to Pawtucket, with Hanley Ramirez slated for first base. But Shaw could be a utility player (he also can play third) and insurance if Ramirez flops.
4. Brian Johnson (5), 25, pitcher. After looking solid in Triple-A (9-6, 2.53), Johnson got a major league start on July 21. He allowed one run in four innings before giving up three in the fifth. But then Johnson was shut down with a sore elbow. The good news is that Johnson will not require surgery – but there will be concern until he gets back out there.
5. Matt Barnes (7), 25, pitcher. Bounced between Pawtucket and Boston – and between starting and relieving – Barnes had a 5.44 ERA for Boston. But he was better in relief, and when facing the lineup the first time in his starts. Dombrowski said Barnes will only relieve in 2016, which hopefully helps him settle into the role.
6. Sam Travis (27), 22, first base. One of only a handful of Red Sox prospects to reach Portland in his first full pro season (think Pedroia, Ellsbury), Travis showed he is a natural hitter (.300/.821 with the Sea Dogs) who can field his position. He had four home runs in 65 games but more power is expected. He tore up the Arizona Fall League (.300/.900), leading the league in hits (32) and doubles (10).
7. Andrew Benintendi (NR), 21, outfield. Speaking of a player who could reach Portland in his first full pro season, Benintendi is a contender. A first-round draft pick last year, he combined hitting .313/.972 with 11 home runs in 54 games, for Lowell and Greenville. He’s likely to begin in Salem, but if he keeps displaying the tools (especially the power), Benintendi is moving up.
8. Pat Light (NR), 25, pitcher. The Red Sox wisely put Light and his 99 mph fastball into the bullpen. He dominated in Portland (0.98 WHIP), and was up and down in Pawtucket (1.73). He is pitching well in the Puerto Rican winter league. As he settles into the role, with needed consistency, Light could soon become a force in the Boston bullpen.
9. Rafael Devers (11), 19, third base. After Moncada, Devers may be the most anticipated bat in the Red Sox system. He was streaky in Greenville last year, batting .288/.773 with 11 home runs. He does not need to be protected on the 40-man roster for two years, so Boston can be patient with him and decide his best position (third or first).
10. Anderson Espinoza (NR), 18, pitcher. Like most 17-year-olds from Venezuela, Espinoza began in the Dominican Summer League in June. He finished the season three levels higher, in Class A Greenville. He does not turn 18 until March. But with a 96 mph fastball and nice curveball, Espinoza is flying through the system. He finished last year with a 1.23 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 65 strikeouts in 58 innings
11. Michael Kopech (NR), 19, pitcher. A first-round draft pick in 2014, Kopech was turning heads in spring training last year (95 mph fastball, impressive slider). He had a 2.63 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 65 innings in Greenville before being suspended in late July for use of a stimulant (which he denies knowingly using). Might begin 2016 in Salem.
12. Deven Marrero (15), 25, shortstop. With Xander Bogaerts cemented at shortstop in Boston, Marrero is insurance or trade bait. His defense remains sharp while his offense has leveled off after breaking out in Portland in 2014 (.291/.804 in 68 games). He batted .256/.660 in Pawtucket last year with 25 games for Boston (.226/.551).
13. Heath Hembree (24), 27, pitcher. Hembree looked good out of the Pawtucket bullpen (2.27 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) last year. After a disastrous April appearance for Boston (six earned runs), Hembree’s major league time featured a 1.50 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 21 games. He has one minor league option remaining and may be a midseason replacement.
14. Noe Ramirez (23), 26, pitcher. Ramirez relieved three games in July for the Red Sox. He was recalled in September, when the Red Sox got a good look at his sinking fastball. He appeared in 14 games and put up decent numbers (3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). He’s likely going back to Pawtucket, giving Boston bullpen depth.
15. Williams Jerez (NR), 23, pitcher. The surprise minor league pitcher of the year for the Red Sox, Jerez relieved for Greenville, Salem and Portland (2.54 ERA/1.34 WHIP). Having converted from the outfield in 2014, Jerez is still a little raw but shows potential with a 92 mph fastball and solid slider.
16. Jonathan Aro (NR), 25, pitcher. The one Sea Dogs player to make it to the majors last year, Aro spent most of the season in Pawtucket (3.14 ERA/1.03 WHIP). In his six relief outings with Boston, he gave up at least one earned run in five of them.
17. Trey Ball (17), 21, pitcher. Ball was considered a possible candidate for Portland last year but never got out of Salem (9-13, 4.73 ERA). The first-round draft pick from 2013 is still young and inconsistent. He threw six no-hit innings in April but was 0-5 with a 10.23 ERA in August.
18. Marco Hernandez (NR), 23, infield. Hernandez appeared to be a no-name minor leaguer obtained from the Cubs in the Felix Doubront trade, but he developed into an Eastern League All-Star, batting .326/.832 for Portland. He could be rough in the field (19 errors at shortstop in 67 games), but moved to second base when he was promoted to Pawtucket, where he batted .271/.709.
19. Aaron Wilkerson (NR), 26, pitcher. This is one of our longshot picks. Wilkerson was in the independent leagues until Boston signed him in July 2014. He reached Portland late in 2015 and made seven starts, going 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 402/3 innings. He mixes a low 90s fastball with a curve, slider and change-up.
20. Wendell Rijo (NR), 20, second base. Rijo’s numbers in Salem last year were not eye-popping (.260/.705), until you realize he was one of the youngest players in the advanced Class A Carolina League. With Carlos Asuaje traded, Rijo may be one of the youngest Sea Dogs in 2016.
21. Teddy Stankiewicz (30), 22, pitcher. Stankiewicz, a second-round draft pick in 2013, showed the typical potential and inconsistency of a young pitcher, finishing 4-11 with a 4.01 ERA for Salem. He mixes four pitches with control, and has proved durable.
22. Mauricio Dubon (NR), 21, shortstop. Dubon played for both Greenville and Salem last year (combined .288/.725). He is a good infielder who could be a utility player. Dubon also brings speed (30 stolen bases last year in 37 attempts).
23. Robby Scott (26), 25, pitcher. Scott, a left-handed reliever who emerged from the independent leagues, continued to dominate Double-A (2.06 ERA/1.03 WHIP) but ran into trouble when promoted to Triple-A (7.67/1.77). Scott should continue to develop and may work his way to Boston.
24. Garin Cecchini (13), 24, infield/outfield. Once a top prospect, Cecchini followed up a disappointing 2014 in Pawtucket (.263/.712), with a terrible 2015 (.213/.583). Originally a third baseman, he’s also playing left field and first base. But his strength is his batting approach, which he will desperately try to rediscover in 2016.
25. Justin Haley (20), 24, pitcher. Haley might have been dropped from the prospect list after struggling throughout 2015 with Portland (5-16, 5.15). But he did put in some quality starts and rebounded in the Arizona Fall League (0.64 ERA in four starts).
26. Henry Ramos (21), 23, outfield. Like two of the prospects listed after him, Ramos is a talent who cannot stay healthy. A broken leg cut short his season in 2014. A knee injury marred 2015. Combined he has played only 85 games the past two years.
27. Bryce Brentz (16), 27, outfield. Brentz could be a power-hitting outfielder any major league team would want. He batted .296/.833, with 17 home runs for Portland in 2012. But injuries have limited him to 204 games the past three years. The 2016 season is his last with minor league options.
28. Sean Coyle (18), 24, second base. Coyle has battled injuries his whole career. Even when he batted .295/.883 for Portland in 2014, he was limited to 96 games. Last season, Coyle managed only 39 games with Pawtucket (.159/.576). Coyle is scrappy and usually productive, but how much can the Sox depend on his being healthy?
29. Nick Longhi (NR), 20, first base/outfield. Longhi was only 17 when he was drafted out of high school in 2013. He has moved up the system, batting .281/.741, with seven home runs for Greenville last year. Worth watching to see how he develops.
30. Luis Ysla (NR), 23, pitcher. Acquired last August from the Giants in the Alexandro De Aza trade, Ysla is a lefty with a mid-90s fastball. He had a 5.84 ERA in advanced Class A last year, but with 101 strikeouts in 85 innings. The potential is there.
From last year’s list, four we consider major leaguers – Blake Swihart (2), Jackie Bradley Jr. (3), Eduardo Rodriguez (4) and Steven Wright (14), who is out of minor league options. Seven prospects were traded – Rubby De La Rosa (6), Anthony Ranaudo (8), Will Middlebrooks (9), Manuel Margot (10), Allen Webster (12), Dan Butler (25) and Carlos Asuaje (28). Two dropped out – Edwin Escobar (22) and Keith Couch (29).
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